While Labour Manages Decline, the Greens Find Their Voice

By-elections have always been a moment for the British public to raise their voice with little impact on national stability. You’re not a fan of recent government behaviour? Then use your vote to make a statement. It’s simple. A lot of the time, an upset for the ruling party will reset itself by the time the next general election swings round.

But what happened in Caerphilly recently seemed a little more damming than usual. For Labour, it was a full-scale rejection.

A seat it had held in the Wales since devolution (and since 1918 in Westminster) slipped away with dramatic collapse. Plaid Cymru won with 47%, Reform took 36%, and Labour’s candidate was left in third place with just 11% of the vote. With its vote share dropping by a third, this was a major swing against the ruling party.  

Added to this, another interesting anomaly was that turnout was just over 50%. One of the highest ever for a Senedd by-election. Instead of the usual apathy, this loss for Labour was the result of engaged anger.

For Labour, red usually means good. But in the case of Caerphilly, this is a red flag they should not ignore.

It’s clear that the public is frustrated. And now, it seems that the fragmented state of politics is allowing for this discontent to be voiced in new ways. Unlike before where it was choosing between red and blue, there are now a lot more options to voice concern.

There is a clear challenge for Labour now. The road ahead until next May is a long one and if they continue at the rate they’re going, the destination will not be a positive one.

What Caerphilly Foreshadows

In Caerphilly in particular, Labour was attacked from both flanks. Plaid Cymru seemed to have clear messaging on housing, equality and a rooted Welsh mission. Meanwhile, Reform continued its usual blame game politics to public success. Clearly there’s something Labour is doing wrong to maintain interest that they’re working to resolve Britain’s problems.

This by-election gave us insight into the changing landscape of British politics. The dejection that everyone is feeling to the “traditional” parties is clear, with neither Labour nor the Conservatives really being in the race. Their total vote share was just 13%.

I think it’s clear that UK politics now sits in a state of fragmented loyalties. The tribalism of the past has been replaced with the electorate’s willingness to look beyond the old duopoly. Whether this is down to simple protest against the status quo or genuine passion for outsider groups is still to be decided.

My first post on this page was relating to my lack of faith in a party that I’ve long believed in. Now, months later, I feel I’m even further from where I once was. Labour is in a continual crisis of not only policy, but of narrative, tone, and moral clarity. What were once perceived as growing pains of a new government are now frustrating constants.

For me, Labour is not listening, not adapting, and has become increasingly tone-deaf.

If Caerphilly was a warning shot, the impending UK budget could be the follow-through. The rumours of tax rises and reversal of manifesto promises are rife. If I was Labour, I’d use the budget as a chance to regroup and for the first time since being elected, set out a real plan for the years ahead. Will they? I doubt it. 

If Labour approaches the budget with the same lukewarm half-measures, they risk reinforcing perceptions of a party without imagination. The budget must break new ground, otherwise it’ll be yet another nail slammed into Labour’s coffin.

From Labour’s failings, we have to look at other groups that are finding momentum. Caerphilly showed that the public is relatively engaged in voicing their frustrations, rather than fatigued with politics. The signs of voter migration have to be looked at.

Those who once stuck with Labour are now looking elsewhere. Rather than getting bogged down in the much discussed rise of reform, let’s look at another group making headway. The Green Party.

The Polanski Effect

The fragmentation of British politics, like with the rest of Europe, seems often to follow a trend of veering towards the right wing. However, while Labour stumbles and Reform feeds off frustration, Zack Polanski and the Greens are charting a different course which I think deserves some attention.

Looking at Reform, its message is simple: “They’ve all failed you — be angry.” It’s like an emotional sugar rush. Quick, loud, yet ultimately hollow. Their victories come from stoking division and amplifying grievance rather than offering genuine answers. It’s easy politics and I’m sure the comedown will strike eventually.

Polanski, by contrast, is building something far more difficult and durable. His appeal doesn’t rely on fuelling outrage but on optimism. He talks about wealth redistribution, community investment, and climate responsibility without resorting to doomsday prophecies or an angry blame game.

Polanski deserves credit for genuinely living the Green image he promotes. He doesn’t just talk about climate change but acts on it, choosing to travel by train rather than fly, even when it’s inconvenient, acknowledging that such choices come from a place of privilege rather than moral superiority. Even he admits that this is partly down to avoiding the hypocrisy obsessed tabloids and cheap journalism of the Daily Mail and co.

Polanski communicates with clear emotional intelligence, speaking from personal experience and self-awareness which makes his politics personal. His refusal to indulge in moral grandstanding  or to play into outrage for me gives his message credibility.

By contrast, Reform’s growth has been cheap. Its formula of inflaming discontent and weaponising culture wars offers a seductive simplicity in a world where things are a bit more nuanced. It will be interesting to see how long this can hold up.

Studies show that nearly two-thirds of Britons believe politicians exaggerate or invent culture wars to distract from substantive issues. How long until the electorate realises they are simply used as tools in these conflicts?

For Polanski, his approach is a welcome rebuke to the populist theatrics dominating public life. Does it get as much media attention from the likes of the Reform obsessed Chris Mason at the BBC? No. But at least it’s entrenched in honesty and turning hope into a political movement in a media climate built for outrage. 

The results speak for themselves. The Greens are polling at their strongest levels in years, with Polanski’s approval ratings higher than any of his party’s predecessors. He has managed to make the Green Party feel relevant.

On a personal level there’s one reason why they haven’t twisted my arm fully. His stance on NATO and denuclearisation remains a strategic weak point for myself and I think wider public interest. Yes, it’s principled, but it’s politically perilous.

Calls for dismantling nuclear deterrence or questioning NATO membership are easily painted as naive. It’s the one area where Polanski risks alienating British pragmatists that might otherwise find his message refreshing. It’s also the one piece of bait that tabloids and opposition can latch onto.

Of course, at least Polanski is a little more well-spoken and principled on the topic than the recent disaster class of Zarah Sultana, but that’s a story for another day.

The Lessons Labour Must Grasp

Turning our attention back to Caerphilly, what happened there was not a local blip. It is a warning that parts of Labour’s historic territory are slipping away. The party’s brand, once rooted in moral clarity and social purpose that attracted me to the cause now looks brittle and broken.

We saw under Corbyn that the “Red Wall” can fall. It would be a shame to see the hard yards that Starmer put in to rebuild it be wasted. Labour’s messaging needs to change. It is far too reactive and scared of making big decisions resulting in a struggle to resonate.

The upcoming budget will be the next battlefield. It has to be used as a chance to reassert authority and set out a long-term plan. Voters want direction, purpose and conviction. A bolder budget could begin to reverse that sense of detachment. Either way, it’s a tough few weeks ahead for Rachel Reeves.

Figures like Zack Polanski matter precisely because they expose what mainstream politics has lost. His brand of activism demonstrates that politics can still generate energy rather than merely manage decline. His example should not be a threat to Labour but a mirror. The recent arrogance of the likes of Harriet Harman to criticise and resist such figures is a symptom of its deeper insecurity.

Labour has to absorb the pressures reshaping the left, otherwise it will lead to its ultimate failure. Caerphilly was an early tremor of what could become a collapse. The electorate has spoken. The question now is whether Labour will listen.