Ceasefire, Release, and Relief. Can it Last?

(Written on Friday, 10th October)

So here we are. Two years on from the horrific terror attack which signalled the start of one of the most brutal persecutions of innocent civilians in recent history. 

We wake up to news that feels almost unbelievable. Netanyahu’s cabinet has approved a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas. Already, Israeli troops are pulling back from parts of Gaza, and hostages are set to be released within 72 hours. Humanitarian aid is preparing to surge in.

As in countless moments of the past, I’m very wary to hold my breath. This moment of cautious optimism may work, or it may be yet another rare pause in an ongoing cycle of destruction. We’ve seen families torn apart, entire communities displaced and shattered, but maybe we are getting a glimpse of what the start of a peace process could look like. 

History gives us plenty of reasons to be sceptical. Israel and Palestine’s histories are riddled with temporary truces which collapsed under the weight of mistrust and asymmetry.

To see this moment as anything more than a pause would be to misunderstand the complexity of what lies ahead.

The next few weeks and months are going to be interesting. This isn’t a one and done situation, and there is still a vast amount of work to be done. However, what this ceasefire does give us is a chance to take stock, step back, and assess what situation we’re currently in. 

Below are a few of my thoughts on the story so far…

A New Normal for Palestinians

We’ve all seen the genuine elation across Gaza and the West Bank. There is real hope that the horrific violence may have come to an end. Palestinians can finally seek medical aid and supplies for the first time without the fear of being brutally murdered.

For a population so accustomed to grief, even a temporary reprieve must feel like a miracle.

But this relief is temporary. As with any initial burst of adrenaline, it is quickly followed by exhaustion and an inevitable comedown.

Citizens of Gaza will soon realise that nothing about daily life will magically reset. Entire neighbourhoods lie in ruins. Critical infrastructure has been annihilated. Hospitals are hanging on a knife edge, powered by flickering generators, clean water is scarce, children are awaken from nightmares into hunger. A mass influx of aid is vital, but there is also an understanding that food and medicine alone can’t heal everything. This is a population which has been stripped of both agency and voice.

Aid isn’t a substitute for dignity, nor can it rebuild sovereignty. When international attention fades once more, as it inevitably does, Gaza risks being left even more fragile. A patchwork of rubble and trauma, momentarily paused but still politically powerless. 

If the world truly wants this ceasefire to mean something, it can’t retreat once the cameras leave. It must remain engaged in its support of Palestinian renewal, and ensure that reconstruction is guided by those who actually live there.

One thing I do hope is that international pressure will not hasten. The Western populous has a habit of bouncing around from one tragedy to another, dependent on what’s trending online. Let’s hope this time that the extent of blatant suffering and dodgy politicking that has been exposed will be enough to keep the limelight on Gaza for longer.

A Peace Plan for Palestine, Created by Outsiders

A key point of contention with this ongoing peace deal is that the most important people were not at the table. 

Palestinians themselves, beyond the negotiators of Hamas, were effectively excluded from shaping the deal that now defines their immediate future. Just like the past two years of conflict, it is the innocent Palestinians who are powerless to decide their fate.

This exclusion brings into question the effectiveness of this agreement. For any peace to endure, those who must live under its terms must feel they helped write them. Top-down decisions are much harder to take root. Has this deal done enough to allow Palestinians to be agents of their destiny, rather than once again just objects of other nations’ strategic convenience?

There is a warranted concern that the past few years may have set in motion a wave of extremism for future generations. Brutal persecution from a foreign power does this. It is vital that the very moderates who could help sustain peace are not alienated. Authority and a voice must be given to civil society groups, human rights advocates, women’s networks, and youth organisers, all who can lend moral weight to the peace process. Any externally crafted deal that ignores this reinforces the idea that diplomacy serves power, not justice. This is where extremism finds its legs.

The price of exclusion is also practical. Reconstruction cannot be dictated by foreign technocrats and donors alone. Questions of governance like who leads, who rebuilds, who distributes, are inherently political. Failure to involve Palestinians meaningfully in these future decisions risks replicating a familiar pattern where outsiders manage a crisis they helped create and locals are asked to comply with frameworks they never approved.

With all the talk of ceasefire, we must not forget to demand giving a fair voice and representation to the citizens of Palestine.

 

Trump, the Dealmaker or the Showman?

In a typical Trumpian fashion, he has already declared victory and another win for his administration. Another war to add to the tally.

We’re already seeing his gaze turn to the Nobel Peace Prize. In his eyes, he’s stopped a war, freed all the hostages, and achieved what others could not.

Interestingly, the deal is very similar to what his predecessor put forward. It raises the question of whether Trump has more international pull than Biden, or whether a few years ago Netanyahu was feeling far less pressure from his citizens to end the conflict. Both points may be valid.

Beneath Trump’s claims it is clearly more complex. The heavy lifting came from a variety of regional nations who have spent months mediating. Of course, the US held a great influence over logistics and political guarantees, but it was hardly the sole architect. 

Still, it has to be said that in politics, optics and grandeur have an impact. Perhaps Trump’s hardline and no-nonsense stance may have done something to bash opposing sides’ heads together. 

Yet his tone shows the issue of global powers claiming ownership over processes in which those most affected are treated as props. Peace can’t be performed, it is a long building process.

A Rocky Road Ahead for Netanyahu?

This is where it gets interesting. For Netanyahu, this ceasefire is a fork in the road. Salvation of freeing Israeli hostages is somewhat overshadowed by the peril of what’s to come. 

Before the October attacks, his popularity was certainly in question. Israel had witnessed mass protests against his judicial overhaul plan. Israelis filled Tel Aviv’s streets accusing him of eroding democracy to protect himself from corruption charges. How long until this resurfaces?

Let’s also remember the scale of the intelligence and defence failures that allowed Hamas to conduct their attack. In the weeks that followed, his approval ratings collapsed. Families of the hostages didn’t shy away from their feelings towards the government, nor did reservists who threatened to refuse serving. For many Israelis, as the dust settles, it may be a point of reckoning with their own leadership’s failures.

The ceasefire may have momentarily shifted attention away from his government’s crises, but the dust will settle and this will no doubt resurface. Netanyahu after all promised absolute victory, yet is now seen as being forced into concessions under US pressure. The far-right members of his coalition like Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich can’t be happy with the outcome. If there support wains, it could be a real issue for Netanyahu.

He’s caught between two unforgiving fronts. One of maintaining his coalition and appeasing the hardliners, and the other to preserve international legitimacy.

The deeper danger for Netanyahu is not only the fragility of his coalition, but the corrosion of public faith. The war temporarily united a fractured society. The ceasefire will likely reopen these issues. Many Israelis must be beginning to whisper the question aloud of whether Netanyahu’s long reign finally reached its end?

The End of Hamas is the Beginning of Palestine’s New Journey

What is also clear to move forwards is that for Palestine to emerge as a viable state, Hamas must make way. That means disbanding its military and relinquishing its political monopoly. Years of governance in Gaza under Hamas have repeatedly shown they are an undermining force rather than one set to build a sustainable nation for Palestinian civilians.

Despite its claims to represent Palestinian interests, Hamas’ rule has directly delayed democratic institution-building. The group has banned elections, removed opposition groups like Fatah, and governed with little transparency. Simultaneously, many Gazans live in dire conditions, whether its collapsing infrastructure, inadequate healthcare, or frequent power, water, and sanitation failures. This is not the record of a strong ruling party.

Hamas-free governance is essential for Palestine.

The group has once hinted it might disarm if a fully sovereign Palestinian state can be established along specified lines and its fighters could be integrated into a national army. But these statements remain conditional and we will have to see how they play out in practice

For Hamas, if they really care about the Palestinian people, they will disband the military wing and allow democratic competition in Gaza. Authority has to be accountable to civilian institutions, otherwise Palestine will remain fragmented and surrounded by internal repression. Without this change, any peace deal or ceasefire risks being nothing more than a temporary interval in ongoing violence.

The Ceasefire is a Fragile Bridge, not a Final Destination

We have to realise that this ceasefire is not peace. Of course, it is a welcome intermission in a play that has been running too long, with too many acts of suffering. What happens next matters more than any ceremony of signatures.

The media spotlight may once again shift away from Gaza, but the Palestinians will remain. Let this be the start of them moving away from survival and towards genuine participation and representation.

Israel must face up to the truth that its security cannot be built on the subjugation of another people. The international community must stop treating this conflict as a stage for moral performance, and instead commit to a process where the people of the land speak for themselves.

So yes, there is a little bit of hope, but what is done with this hope and the space given by a ceasefire is what’s now important.

It is time to decide whether we enter a period of renewal, or merely another pause in a story of endless violence.